Technology/Device Social Crutch

I recently attended a 2-day offsite with mid-level executives at a large client of ours. The evenings were general social events of dinner, drinks, and non-work discussion. I was so surprised to observe how often people talked about their devices or technology as a topic of discussion, referenced their devices in the midst of discussion to look something up, or dropped out of a discussion entirely to read off their devices.

In a rare night away from spouses and kids, in an intimate and friendly environment with interesting people, lubricated by drinks - we couldn't make it 5 minutes without the devices crutch being leaned upon.

Resiliency, Panic, and Anxiety

"Resilience is a precious skill. People who have it tend to also have three underlying advantages:
- a belief that they can influence life events;
- a tendency to find meaningful purpose in life’s turmoil;
- and a conviction that they can learn from both positive and negative experiences."

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"Panic occurs if and only if three other conditions are present, Quarantelli concluded.
- First, people must feel that they may be trapped...
- Second, panic requires a sensation of great helplessness - which often grows from interaction with others...
- The final prerequisite to panic is a sense of profound isolation.

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"As it turns out, people with higher trait anxiety are more likely to rip out their air supply, Morgan found.... he could predict who would panic with 83 percent accuracy. Essentially, he found that certain people are slightly more likely to lose touch with their reality when under physical stress.... They have overreacted, in the purest form of panic.

– Amanda Ripley, The Unthinkable

Women and Complaining

Researchers say it isn't clear why in numerous studies women tend to complain more about their sleep, saying they don't get enough shut-eye and find it difficult to fall asleep and stay asleep. Sleep studies might not be picking up the whole story, some researchers say, adding that more investigation is needed... "This isn't going to be popular, but some studies show that mothers get more sleep than fathers," he says. - "A Sleep Battle of the Sexes", WSJ, 8/23/2011

Seems patently obvious, doesn't it? Women complain more than men, despite having less reason to complain.

What a shock.

The Math of Jefferson County, Alabama's Sewer Bond Bankruptcy

Jefferson County, Alabama, might declare bankruptcy on a $3.1B bond for their sewer system. How come?

"...126,000 of the county's 658,000 residents use the Jefferson County sewer system....Median household income in Birmingham is $31,704 a year."

126,000 x $31,704 = $4.0B

$3.1B / 126,000 = $24,729

Who's the moron who thought this was a supportable debt load?

Source: WSJ, Consultant Ninja Analysis

America's "Lost Decade" of Housing

"In real terms, the National index is back to Q4 1999 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to August 2000, and the CoreLogic index back to March 2000. In real terms, all appreciation in the last decade is gone."

Source: Calculated Risk

Consulting Verbatims

From: Client
Sent: Monday, 11:32 PM
To: Consultant Ninja
Subject: RE: Market Data Sources

Ninja-

Please make this high priority. Good oppty to get some solid data

Tx

(Sent while mobile)
-----
[forwarded email follows with thread of random musings]

From: Consultant Ninja
Sent: Monday, 11:45 PM
To: Client
Subject: RE: Market Data Sources

Understood, I will deprioritize my current reports, until you advise a status upgrade to them, and make this a primary action item.

Why the US Housing Market is still royally screwed

As a potential homeowner, I've been trying to assess which way the housing market is going. I've seen in my local market "falling prices" "bidding wars", and "all cash buyers." What does it mean? Am I going to miss out on the next bull market? Fortunately for me, unfortunately for the US, it looks like the market is well and truly screwed and there's no reason to hurry.

Consider that US Owner-Occupied Households fall into 1 of 2 categories:

• Without Mortgage (~33% of the market, ~25M households): They own their house free and clear, owning 100% of the equity value of their home
  
• With a Mortgage (~66% of the market, ~48M households): They own their house, but have a mortgage. Assuming a normal distribution, you'd expect the average homeowner to have perhaps 60% (halfway between 20% and 100%) of the equity value of their home.
  

Today 20 million of homeowners with a Mortgage, or 40% of them, have negative equity. They owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth. Simply put, these people are in a world of hurt.

What about the other 28M? Unfortunately, they on average owe 85% (0.8/5.4 = 15%) of the value of their home - 2 out of 3 homeowner own little-to-no household equity.

Why is this important to home prices today? 80% of home purchases are made by people who already own homes. So when 2 out of 3 households with homes have no equity in the bank, they have no ability to be "move-up" buyers, and support the higher-end of the market.

When I think about home appreciation, the current price isn't what I'm thinking about. I'm thinking, "will somebody be able to pay me this much or more for this house 5-10 years ago?" Based on this analysis, I believe the answer to be no. I'll continue staying on the sidelines for a ways to come.

Source: Of Two Minds, Federal Reserve, Zillow, HomeGain, National Association of Home Builders,Consultant Ninja Analysis

How Consultants Manage Frequent Flyer Miles

When you are in consulting, you rack up a lot of frequent flyer miles and hotel points, but you don't have a lot of time to manage them. Every consultant I know has lost points due to weird expiration rules, and I once tried to redeem my Delta miles for a flight, only to find out that my miles had expired 8 months earlier (and Delta, of course, never told me that they had expired).

What would be really helpful is a site that allowed you to track and manage all your frequent flyer miles and points in one place. A single place that shows me all the relevant promotions and deals out there for my programs. A single place to tell me when my miles are going to expire, and shows me how to protect them from expiring.

Turns out there's a site that does that today - GoMiles.com.

It is still in private beta, but I like what I see and I'm using it to manage all of my (and Mrs. Ninja's) frequent flyer, hotel, car, and AMEX accounts. Check it out.

https://www.GoMiles.com
Referral Code: NINJA-FRIENDS

(Full disclosure: I know one of the founders from when he was in NYC.)

Why PowerPoint is Bad

There are a million examples of bad PowerPoint slides, but this one is special. Understanding why it's bad is like unraveling a Mobius Strip. Get to the end, and you're back at the beginning - kind of.

Source: Microsoft Q4 2010 Webcast

Recommendation: Long BP Based on impending fix of Oil Leak

Since the blowout preventer is going to be fixed very soon thanks to this man's work, I'm recommending a strong buy of BP.

Fuermann said his desire to use meditation to activate the blowout preventer -- and his belief that visualization could actually work -- is rooted in his own life experiences and in a global movement called the Intention Experiment.

"I'm very known for fixing things and making things work," Fuermann said, adding that he believes his meditation helped fix a friend's Flip video camera. "I visualize things working and hold the belief that they actually work."

Dwayne Bourgoyne, a deep-water mining expert at the Colorado School of Mines, said Tuesday that he has "never heard of such an attempt to stop an oil spill or any other kind of mechanical failure." But he also conceded that while he is familiar with the known law of physics he is "unfamiliar with the telekinetic potential of meditation." - Boulder Daily Camera, May 4, 2010

I love how the reporter got him to concede that all he knows about are "the law of physics."